As I understand it,certain people were assuring and were highly confident that the landlord would accept a lease renewal offer for a lease on the same terms as before. But about three weeks in, the offer hasn't been picked up on. so I'm concerned. Mission Street has been "discovered", and rents are a different color of green.. People who care about the neighborhood, have seen that a lot of people being moved out, including one of a kind non-profits. So there is that.
Last time, six years ago, when Noisebridge moved, the wiki showed it took some time to do the move, and that for one month rent was paid on both places. https://noisebridge.net/wiki/Lease#before_September_1st If that pattern repeated, Noisebridge would secure the overlap space starting August 1st. Which is soon, or about seven weeks.
There is also the thing of the Chaos Camp, being in the same time area, as all the rent stuff would be happening. Some of the people discussing attending Chaos Camp, have been awesome contributors to NB.
Everyone who reads the local_media , or walks around the neighborhood where Noisebridge is located, must have noted the changes in the business, sometimes contentious, sometimes litigious but undeniably major changes happen.
Noisebridge's lease expires at the end of August 2015. There has been speculation on what the next rental rate could be. It is great advice to try to avoid "the sky is falling" speculation on what the rent might be asked, but real information would be valuable. Moving would be painful, the reboot showed. And because a rental change could be such a significant event trying to look a little over the horizon, or beyond our headlights beam has value. If lease renewal turns out to be problematic, then dealing with it, is a long runway item.
In Real Estate discussion comparables is what is traditionally used. The question is what does a comparable place rent at. I've been looking to try to find "comprables" but its not that easy. I'd guess that NB's space is class B or C, light industrial or creative space.
This lots_of_listings_without_prices and when scrolling down provides a narrative of median rent for offices and how rents compare with other parts of the City and within the Mission district (well its true that NB's space is less than office space)
My conclusion, -I did not find enough information to make a narrow window prediction on what the comparable rent is
UPDATE, came before the Tuesday meeting, 6:20, . Worked on this myself. and did some more searching. Found two better websites. Conclude that the comparable windows for the asking price is ~ $1.50 to 2.50. But then I claim no expertise, and think that the realtors have better tools. Predicting that space is offered at $2.25 and can be negotiated down to ~2. so ~ 10k