[Space] predictions for this weekend

Bryan Klofas bklofas at gmail.com
Thu Jun 3 23:39:57 PDT 2010


Hey Everybody--

I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we 
should try and launch farther towards the ocean.

I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script 
http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put 
touchdown in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total ground 
distance of almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png image attached.

I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of Wyoming. 
http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put touchdown almost 
25 miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra nevada mountains. See 
prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated KML file.

Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst at 
90k feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and differences in 
these predictions (both due East headings are on top of each other), but 
the Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east. Maybe it was using a 
much slower Ascent rate (less than the 1000ft/min I specified in 
w3baltrak)? I'm not sure.

There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak 
http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.

Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the 
past, if you use weather data from just after you launch, the 
predictions are usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should try 
launching from Livermore or Pleasanton.

later!
--
Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
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