[Space] predictions for this weekend

Blake Barrett Blake at BlakeBarrett.net
Thu Jun 3 23:53:14 PDT 2010


How many airports does that projected trajectory cross I wonder?


On Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 11:39 PM, Bryan Klofas <bklofas at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hey Everybody--
>
> I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we should
> try and launch farther towards the ocean.
>
> I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script
> http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put touchdown
> in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total ground distance of
> almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png image attached.
>
> I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of Wyoming.
> http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put touchdown almost 25
> miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra nevada mountains. See
> prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated KML file.
>
> Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst at 90k
> feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and differences in these
> predictions (both due East headings are on top of each other), but the
> Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east. Maybe it was using a much
> slower Ascent rate (less than the 1000ft/min I specified in w3baltrak)? I'm
> not sure.
>
> There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak
> http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.
>
> Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the past,
> if you use weather data from just after you launch, the predictions are
> usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should try launching from
> Livermore or Pleasanton.
>
> later!
> --
> Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
>
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>


-- 
Blake
blake at blakebarrett.net
1 559 455 7855
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