[Space] predictions for this weekend

Bryan Klofas bklofas at gmail.com
Fri Jun 4 09:57:47 PDT 2010


Hey Blake--

It only really matters for the first 15 minutes of flight, as there 
isn't much general aviation above 15k feet elevation. But you do bring 
up a good point, as Tracy municipal Airport is only about 6 miles from 
the launch site. Just as long as the surface winds aren't stronger than 
30 mph....
--
Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO

On 6/3/2010 11:53 PM, Blake Barrett wrote:
> How many airports does that projected trajectory cross I wonder?
> 
> 
> On Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 11:39 PM, Bryan Klofas <bklofas at gmail.com 
> <mailto:bklofas at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
>     Hey Everybody--
> 
>     I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we
>     should try and launch farther towards the ocean.
> 
>     I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script
>     http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put
>     touchdown in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total
>     ground distance of almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png
>     image attached.
> 
>     I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of
>     Wyoming. http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put
>     touchdown almost 25 miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra
>     nevada mountains. See prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated
>     KML file.
> 
>     Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst
>     at 90k feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and
>     differences in these predictions (both due East headings are on top
>     of each other), but the Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east.
>     Maybe it was using a much slower Ascent rate (less than the
>     1000ft/min I specified in w3baltrak)? I'm not sure.
> 
>     There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak
>     http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.
> 
>     Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the
>     past, if you use weather data from just after you launch, the
>     predictions are usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should
>     try launching from Livermore or Pleasanton.
> 
>     later!
>     --
>     Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
> 
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> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> Blake
> blake at blakebarrett.net <mailto:blake at blakebarrett.net>
> 1 559 455 7855


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