[Space] predictions for this weekend
bklofas at gmail.com
Fri Jun 4 09:57:47 PDT 2010
It only really matters for the first 15 minutes of flight, as there
isn't much general aviation above 15k feet elevation. But you do bring
up a good point, as Tracy municipal Airport is only about 6 miles from
the launch site. Just as long as the surface winds aren't stronger than
Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
On 6/3/2010 11:53 PM, Blake Barrett wrote:
> How many airports does that projected trajectory cross I wonder?
> On Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 11:39 PM, Bryan Klofas <bklofas at gmail.com
> <mailto:bklofas at gmail.com>> wrote:
> Hey Everybody--
> I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we
> should try and launch farther towards the ocean.
> I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script
> http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put
> touchdown in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total
> ground distance of almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png
> image attached.
> I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of
> Wyoming. http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put
> touchdown almost 25 miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra
> nevada mountains. See prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated
> KML file.
> Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst
> at 90k feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and
> differences in these predictions (both due East headings are on top
> of each other), but the Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east.
> Maybe it was using a much slower Ascent rate (less than the
> 1000ft/min I specified in w3baltrak)? I'm not sure.
> There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak
> http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.
> Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the
> past, if you use weather data from just after you launch, the
> predictions are usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should
> try launching from Livermore or Pleasanton.
> Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
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> blake at blakebarrett.net <mailto:blake at blakebarrett.net>
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